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Links 1/3/2026 | naked capitalism

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South of the Border: US Coup in Caracas

Trump says US has ‘captured’ Venezuelan President Maduro and his wife in ‘large-scale strike’ BBC. Larry Wilkerson did say it could be done with as little as a brigade some time ago. This is so so bad. Among other things, China and Russia will go on full war footings. A contact who taught Global South diplomats said right after the strikes began:

“One of my ex students is there. Armed mobs are hunting down Americans.” He added later: “The riots in Iran seem to be petering out as counter protestors are taking to the streets to hunt down the armed provocateurs. 30+ caught so far plus a factory full of women making petrol bombs. It would suck to be them.”

And: “I’m not sure what kidnapping Maduro achieved, they have a VP who will step into his shoes. Does Marchado think she’ll be greeted with rose petals? And on what grounds will she be installed, she wasn’t even in the presidential race. So much for democracy.”

And will the militia blow up the oil wells?

Venezuelan president Maduro captured and flown out of country following ‘large scale’ US attack, Trump says – live Guardian. From its feed:

Venezuela will resist the presence of foreign troops, defence minister Vladimir Padrino said in a video early on Saturday, reports Reuters, as Donald Trump said Venezuelan president Nicolás Maduro had been captured and flown out of the country.

A US attack on the country in the early morning struck civilian areas, Padrino said, and Venezuela is compiling information about dead and injured people.

Live: Trump claims Venezuela’s Maduro ‘captured’ after attacks Aljazeera. Live feed. An entry just before 6 AM EST:

Sultan Barakat, professor of public policy at Hamad Bin Khalifa University in Qatar, told Al Jazeera that the US’s actions in Venezuela signal an end to respect for international law and that it has also given international rivals an excuse to do the same thing.

“This is probably a nail in the coffin of any international agreement. The very principle of state sovereignty now has been taken apart,” Barakat said.

There are reports on Twitter of the US taking the Caracas airport, but I see no confirmation in any live news feed. And we have this from the BBC:

United States Secretary of State Marco Rubio anticipates no further action against Venezuela following the capture of Nicolás Maduro, says a Republican senator.

Mike Lee confirmed Venezuelan President Maduro’s arrest, to stand trial on criminal charges in the US, following a phone call with Rubio.

“He [Rubio] anticipates no further action in Venezuela now that Maduro is in US custody,” says Senator Lee.

Lee adds that the US strikes were “deployed to protect and defend those executing the arrest warrant”.

Multiple explosions rock Venezuelan capital Caracas CNN

Note this tweet is dated just before the strike started. Were the Chinese officials in Caracas when the attack began? Was this part of what drove the timing?

Culture, Science, Medicine

How I outgrew Nietzsche Unherd

The Shared Walk; A Reflection on Jim Holt’s Excursions to the Edge of Thought The One Percent Rule

‘Chinese Peptides’ Are the Latest Biohacking Trend in the Tech World New York Times (resilc)

#COVID-19/Pandemics

Climate/Environment

Glaciers are melting. It may reawaken the world’s most dangerous volcanoes CNN

Wildfire smoke is a national crisis, and it’s worse than you think Grist

Why there’s no escape from Delhi’s biggest killer Sky

How the climate crisis showed up in Americans’ lives this year: ‘The shift has been swift and stark’ Guardian

Forcing lifestyle changes could weaken support for climate action, study finds Independent. Sigh. There will be forced lifestyle changes. You can choose a few now or have even more later. Scarcity and crisis will make them inevitable.

The Well Watchers Mother Jones (guurst)

China?

China must take action to avoid Japan-style deflation spiral, scholars warn South China Morning Post

Taiwan’s £7.5tn secret weapon is disintegrating Telegraph

Beijing appears to warn it could intercept Evergreen ships transporting HIMARS to Taiwan, in war or peace Pekingology

China Arms a Container Ship | Picket/Surveillance | First Strike | Cost Effective | Expendable What’s Going on With Shipping? YouTube

Japan

Pacifist Japan has slowly transformed from exclusively self-defense to a military build-up Los Angeles Times

European Disunion

Christine Lagarde’s pay is 50% higher than disclosed by ECB Financial Times (Micael T)

People in Germany are increasingly worried about their jobs, according to a survey DPA International

French farmer protests: union calls for ‘mass restart’ of action Connexion

The Agricultural Revolt on Europe’s Southern Periphery: Greece’s Warning to the EU’s Federalist Project New Eastern Outlook (Micael T)

Germany begins sending forms to 18-year-olds asking them if they are fit for war as conscription laws come into effect Daily Mail

Finland aims to boost reservist numbers to a million – by raising upper age limit Force News

Aftonbladet’s survey shows: 22 percent of women do not want to have children Aftonbladet via machine translation (Micael T)

Old Blighty

UK government vows to ‘defend’ decision to strip Shamima Begum of citizenship Middle East Eye (resilc)

Jewish groups warned ban on Maccabi Tel Aviv fans attending match could be seen as ‘antisemitic’ Guardian

Israel v. The Resistance

Abraham Accords: Less Historic Than Advertised Libertarian Institute (Kevin W). From last month, still germane

AIPAC IS RETREATING FROM ENDORSEMENTS AND ELECTION SPENDING. IT WON’T GIVE UP ITS INFLUENCE. Intercept (resilc)

Photos: Thousands march in Turkiye in support of Gaza on New Year’s Day Aljazeera

* * *

At least seven killed as protests spread in Iran ITV. Note that security forces were apparently among the dead.

Trump says if Iran “kills peaceful protesters,” the U.S. will “come to their rescue” CBS. doug c: “I guess a few will be shot from a roof top now?”

Trump Says U.S. Is ‘Locked and Loaded’ if Iran Kills Protesters New York Times (resilc)

Trump’s Threat to ‘Rescue’ Iranian Protesters Is Reckless Daniel Larison

US and Israel Prepping for a New Attack on Iran by Creating a Narrative of Government Chaos Larry Johnson. As much as I like Johnson, I differ with this framing. The US likely believes its PR as in it has convinced itself that there is an opportunity where one does not exist much. Secondly, Bibi’s urgent need to go after Iran now due to cratering US popular support of Israel leads Israel to greatly overhype any supposed opportunities or threats.

Saudi Arabia sets executions record in 2025, putting 356 people to death New Arab (resilc)

Saudis v. UAE

Saudi Arabia backs Yemeni president’s call for Riyadh talks, urges southern factions to attend Anadolu Agency

New Not-So-Cold War

SITREP 1/2/26: Odessa Pressure Peaks, as Zelensky Announces Major Senior Staff Reshuffle Simplicius

Zelensky names spy chief to head presidential office after corruption row BBC

Will Zelensky survive 2026? Events in Ukraine. Leans toward a Betteridge Law violation

Is Trump Just Too Damn Nice? Or is that Putin? Olivier Boyd-Barrett. IMHO buries a key idea, that the recent barrage of press stories, notably a major piece in the New York Times, about the US and Ukraine “separating” is a disinfo operation.

Putin Assassination Attempt Foiled. Trump Threatens Attack On Iran Amid Protest Jamarl Thomas, YouTube. From Helmer by e-mail:

In the Jamarl Thomas podcast I’ve tried to go from the military facts on the ground to the political facts on the ground, and thence to the strategic consequences:
— If the CIA/Ratcliffe are telling the truth and if Trump believes it, then no US agreement on Russian terms is possible in the weeks ahead.
— if GRU/Kostyukov is telling the truth, and the attack was targeted on the President or the nuclear command-control bunker, this triggers Russian nuclear retaliation doctrine. Short of nuclear retaliation, what can Putin do if the American side is determined to go on supporting Zelensky (plus Budanov) and if Trump is endorsing this line? Note that for the exchange of data on the drone operation, the Russian side sent Admiral Igor Kostyukov, chief of GRU military intelligence. The US side sent an unnamed naval officer of captain’s rank who isn’t Rear Admiral Manero, the listed head of the Pentagon’s representation in Moscow — this is a deliberate US insult.
— The Russian side must conclude now that through the drone attack plan on Novgorod, like the June 1 attack on the Tupolev nuclear bomber fleet, the US is threatening to attack more forcefully in the future in the confidence it can overwhelm Russian deterrence capabilities, and with the timing of Budanov’s appoint to be counted as well, the US side is confident it can keep fighting on the front to prevent collapse, keep the regime in power in Kiev for the long term, keep striking at Putin’s and Russia’s vulnerabilities, etc.
Problem in Moscow — what message to send back for effective deterrence? How long to delay before sending it?

I am puzzled by the idea that an agreement with the US on Russian terms is something Helmer sees as possible on any time frame short of having to come to grips with an imminent political or military collapse. Trump is a weak person and President and there are too many opposed domestic factions, even if Trump were capable of sticking to decision, as opposed to falling in with the last person who spoke to him.

Ukrainian Strikes on Russia’s Energy Assets Hit a Monthly Record Bloomberg

Listening to what regular Ukrainians are saying about the war Responsible Statecraft (resilc)

Lithuania is preparing to blow up bridges on the border with Russia and Belarus TopWar (Micael T)

Big Brother is Watching You Watch

DHS Says REAL ID, Which DHS Certifies, Is Too Unreliable To Confirm U.S. Citizenship Reason

Keir Starmer is starting 2026 with a plot to tear up our freedoms with one atrocious move Express (resilc). What if you leave your phone at home a lot, or start doing so if this goes through? We were very keen about Justine Haupt’s rotary 4G phone, but sadly it was not to be.

Imperial Collapse Watch

Global flashpoints: the conflicts to watch in 2026 Nation Thailand

Democracy in retreat amid growing global conflict and aid cuts, warns David Miliband Independent

The Ottoman Empire “Debt Trap”: How Britain Bought The Middle East YouTube

Trump 2.0

America Talks Tough, Acts Lost Paulo Aguiar

4 ways Team Trump reminded us of Bush-Cheney in 2025 Responsible Statecraft (resilc)

* * *

Trump’s Tangled Web of Deal-Making, Policy and Riches New York Times (resilc)

Trump’s wealth grew in 2025, but his investors took lumps Axios

* * *

‘Their first instinct was to loot’: how Trump’s acolytes are plundering the Kennedy Center Guardian (resilc)

FCC Bans Sale Of All Foreign Drones In The U.S. Jalopnik (resilc)

Immigration

ICE Drives Unmarked Cars. This Public Database Tracks Their License Plates. Intercept (resilc)

GOP Clown Car

GOP lawmakers, frustrated with dysfunctional Congress, head for the exits The Hill

Mamdani

Zohran Mamdani’s Message Goes National: Tax Justice, AI, and the End of Austerity Politics Egberto

Mamdani Demotes NYPD Commissioner Jessica Tisch Ken Klippenstein

Mamdani Revokes Executive Orders That Adams Signed to Support Israel New York Times

Gunz

California ban on openly carrying guns is unconstitutional, court rules Guardian

Economy

World economy in 2026: Three scenarios and a dystopia ElPais

Aluminum prices soar on Trump tariffs, global shortages, and China supply chain moves Kevin Walmsley

Global property bubble watch: Miami, Tokyo and Zurich flagged as highest-risk cities Nation Thailand

Mr. Market is Giddy

Gold and Silver Steady at New Year as Index Selling Looms Bloomberg

Central banks enter the gold trade to choke off smuggling Financial Times

AI

What AI means for the future of policing Axios

The Bezzle

Class Warfare

List of Companies Laying Off Employees in January Newsweek (resilc)

U.S. households more pessimistic on finances despite steady inflation Investing

‘A state of crisis’: record number of Americans are pessimistic about US healthcare system Guardian

Parents Are Going Broke From Their Kids’ Sushi Obsession Wall Street Journal. No archived or syndicated version yet.

WTF is wrong with these supposed adults? Did they never learn the word “no”?

Antidote du jour. John U: “Sierra Newts underwater”:

And a bonus (guurst):

A second bonus:

And a third:

See yesterday’s Links and Antidote du Jour here.

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