That’s former CBO Director Doug Holtz-Eakin (seem minute 2 on this video) (h/t Philip Webre):
He was referring primarily to the labor market:
Figure 1: Nonfarm payroll employment as reported by CES (bold black), Preliminary benchmark revision with monthly changed “wedged in” over the 2024M03-25M03 period (red), estimated preliminary benchmark using midpoint of Wells Fargo estimated revision (green), and GS estimate of final benchmark revision (tan), all in 000’s, s.a. Source: BLS via FRED, BLS, Goldman Sachs, Wells Fargo, author’s calculations.
Figure 1: Vacancies to Unemployed Ratio (blue line). Horizontal light blue line at 1.0 value. NBER defined peak to trough recession dates shaded gray. Source: BLS, NBER, and author’s calculations.
And manufacturing employment:
Figure 3: Manufacturing employment, all employees, official (light blue), implied preliminary benchmark (bold black), QCEW seasonally adjusted by author using X-13 over 2021M03-2025M03 period (green), and ADP-Stanford Digital Laboratory (red), all in 000’s, s.a.
