The new birth/death model has been in for two months; the new population controls were retroactively applied to January (usually, there are no revisions from month to month). NFP miss of 150K vs Bloomberg consensus of +58K.
Figure 1: CES nonfarm payroll payroll employment, February release (dark blue, left log scale), January release (sky blue, left log scale), CPS civilian employment, February release, incorporating smoothed population controls for 2024 (dark red, right log scale), official series through January release (light red, right log scale), all in 000’s, s.a. Source: BLS via FRED, and BLS.
