And CPI nowcasted to rise in August, too:
Figure 1: Instantaneous inflation for core CPI (black, left scale), chained core CPI (gray, left scale), core PCE deflator (light blue, left scale), core PPI (red, right scale). Core PCE inflation for August is Cleveland Fed y/y nowcast as of 9/1. All per Eeckhout (2023), T=12, a=4. Source: BLS, BEA, via FRED, and author’s calculations.
Note that 3.1%, core PCE instantaneous inflation is now over a percentage point above the 2% target (y/y inflation is 2.9%).
