Watch the Term Premium (10yr)




That’s Jared Bernstein’s advice, in the wake of Trump’s escalation of the war on Fed independence. Here’s the picture up to yesterday before the letter to Cook, using the NY Fed’s (Adrian, Crump and Moench) model:

Figure 1: Ten year term premium, in % (blue). Light orange shading denotes period between Vought letter to Powell and Trump’s visit to Fed. Source: NY Fed. 

 



This entry was posted on by Menzie Chinn.



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Wall Street is more focused on Nvidia than on threats to Fed independence. That may be a big mistake.

Lisa Cook, take the money and run

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