The recent undershooting of consensus CPI and PPI has been taken to mean that tariffs have not yet had an impact on prices (e.g., NYT). First, an interesting picture from Truflation:
Source: Truflation, accessed 6/15/2025.
Since the graph is in % from January 2020, then the increase in slope from April can be taken as acceleration in inflation.
Can one glean more information from big data, looking at trends in different categories (domestic, imported, imported tariffed). This graph, from Cavallo et al. (2025).
See also this interview.
