From the CPI release today:
Figure 1: CPI all urban (bold blue), CPI – household furnishings and operations (tan), CPI – final demand, consumer durables (green), all in logs 2025M01=0. Source: BLS via FRED, author’s calculations.
While m/m CPI headline growth was at consensus, q/q core was slightly above, so that the core PCE nowcast has moved up:
Figure 2: Quarter-on-Quarter annualized inflation of CPI (bold black), Cleveland Fed nowcast as of 8/8 (gray square), Bloomberg consensus, Kalshi betting CT (chartreuse triangle), Goldman Sachs as of 8/7 (red *), inflation of PCE (bold blue), Cleveland Fed nowcast as of 8/8 (light blue open square). as of 8/12 (light blue large square). Source: BLS, BEA, Cleveland Fed accessed 8/8, 8/12, Bloomberg, Kalshi accessed 8/8 noon CT, Goldman Sachs, and author’s calculations.
