Kalshi today. 2.4% from GDPNow and the Bloomberg consensus.
Figure 1: GDP as reported (bold black), GDPNow (blue open square), NY Fed (light blue triangle) WSJ July survey mean (tan), Kalshi bet, 7/28 (pink circle), Bloomberg consensus as of 7/28 (light green circle), all in bn.Ch.2017$, SAAR. All predictions as of 7/25 unless otherwise indicated. Source: BEA 2025Q1 3rd release, WSJ survey, Bloomberg, Atlanta Fed, NY Fed, Goldman Sachs, Kalshi.com, and author’s calculations.
