A slight recasting of outlook:
Figure 1: Implied NFP preliminary benchmark revision (thin blue), post-benchmark NFP (bold blue), civilian employment with smoothed population controls (bold orange), industrial production (red), personal income excluding current transfers in Ch.2017$ (bold light green), manufacturing and trade sales in Ch.2017$ (black), and monthly GDP in Ch.2017$ (pink),GDP (blue bars), all log normalized to 2025M01=0. Source: BLS via FRED, BLS, Federal Reserve, BEA 2025Q4 advance release,S&P Global Market Insights (nee Macroeconomic Advisers, IHS Markit) (1/21/2026 release), and author’s calculations.
