The actual — as opposed to announced — rate has only recently exceeded 12% (source: Paweł Skrzypczyński). Expect plenty of cost increases in 2026:
Source: Paweł Skrzypczyński, accessed Jan 9, 2026.
As noted by Jeff Frankel, lots of delay/TACO on the part of Trump meant that the effective tariff rate diverged a lot from the announced rate. Combined with stockpiling, the price effect has been somewhat delayed.
Big data suggests the respite in goods price inflation is disappearing.
Source: Harvard Pricing Lab Tariff Tracker, accessed January 9, 2026.
