Yes, if the Philadelphia Fed Early Benchmark is closer to right.
Figure 1: Panel A: Average effective tariff rate, % (black), Panel B: Wisconsin Nonfarm Payroll Employment from CES (blue), Implied Preliminary Benchmark Revision (bold tan), Early Benchmark (bold green), QCEW covered employment, seasonally adjusted by author using geometric X-13, plus rescaled by adding 97,000 (pink), all in 000’s, s.a. Source: Pawel Skrzypczynski, BLS via FRED, BLS and author’s calculations, Philadelphia Fed, BLS(QCEW), and author’s calculations.
Recall from April on, changes in the implied preliminary benchmark are the same as the official CES series. Hence, those observations are not benchmarked.
